tHiNkEr’S rOoM

That time of the 5 years is with us again. Politics and politicians are going into sheer overdrive.

And as am generally wont to, I observe these developments with a combination of amusement and amazement, as well as the inevitable bewilderment.

Technology

In this election heavy use is being made of technology. In this regard Mzalendo is picking up steam and then some. If you want to know how people think, just read some of the comments made in the profiles of ex-MPs and aspirants. Many of them beggar belief. We have not hesitated in deleting the more outrageous ones from people who are still yet to understand that freedom of speech does not mean saying what you like.

Email is another heavy campaign tool. My inbox used to be flooded with the following

• Definitions of PNU / ODM
• Why Raila / Kibaki / Kalonzo is the salt of the earth and the best thing EVER for this country
• Why Raila / Kibaki / Kalonzo is the devil incarnate and is out to plunder the nation and eat my young
• Assortments of manifestos, memoranda of understanding, secret minutes and speeches of varying degrees of improbability

These have been sent by well meaning friends, acquaintances, readers and random people under the mistaken impression that I give a flying rat’s ass.

I don’t.

In fact I delete them on sight.

In fact that’s not even entirely true. I have created some inbox rules to delete all that nonsense mentioning those fellows even before I see it.

People, our bandwidth is limited. Don’t forward nonsense like Raila Odinga has promised to shut down sausage factories in coast!

Promises

Its very easy to tell when politicians are lying in Kenya. Basically, their lips move. There’s something about a microphone that mysteriously converts politician’s grey and white matter into doesn’t matter.

Let us take a look at a few of these

Double The Size Of The Economy

While sweaty faced politicians, bellies quivering from the exertion of mounting the dais are bellowing this little gem and hired support is whistling and ululating, the more pragmatic amongst us are actually trying to break it down.

Let us assume the Kenyan economy at present can be valued at 100 shillings. If a bellowing fellow tells me that he wants to double it, I assume he means he intends it to get to 200 shillings.

Now, let us assume the 6% growth we are always being told about is a fact. Assuming we keep the same going, in 5 years the economy will look like this:

Year	Economy
2007	100.00
2008	106.00
2009	112.36
2010	119.10
2011	126.25
2012	133.82

 

 

For us to get to 200, as our friends unblushingly tell us, there are two ways:

1) Steady actual growth

In this scenario our economy will grow by 20 shillings a year. So it will look like so in 2012

Year	Economy	% Growth
2007	100.00	-
2008	106.00	20.00%
2009	112.36	16.67%
2010	119.10	14.29%
2011	126.25	12.50%
2012	133.82	11.11%

 

 

Note that in this model the growth is initially steep but it tapers down.

2) Steady percentage grown

In this scenario the economy will grow by a steady percentage of 15%. In 2012 it will look like this

Year	Economy	% Growth
2007	100.00	-
2008	115.00	15%
2009	132.25	15%
2010	152.09	15%
2011	174.90	15%
2012	201.14	15%

 

 

3) Staggered growth

Some years will have more growth than others

I am keen for someone to explain to me how the economy will magically grow from between 15% and 20% once they take power.

Free Health / Education

Another favourite hobby horse is the free stuff campaign. We have been promised free primary and free secondary education. Some candidates have been very clever to shadow box by saying the free applies to the tuition part. No mention is made of other cash cows like school uniform, activity fees, homo sapiens fees, opposable thumb fees, sitting down allowance and all the other gotchas that fleece the parents.

Assuming they somehow mean what they say (I know that’s a stretch, bear with me), what no one is saying is how they plan to pay for all these things. Remember, nothing is free. Someone always foots the bill.

Think of it this way. The pie chart plots government income against revenue

What these beefy gentlemen seem to overlook is that all this free stuff increases the size of the red section. Once it becomes larger than the blue section, that means the costs are more than the income!

The only way you can increase the red is to increase the blue first. And that is where I find every one of the candidates wanting. Telling me you will increase the economy (the pie) by 200% without giving specifics is talking through your… not good enough.

Working Nation

The same fellows that are promising a working nation and culture of industry are the same fellows who have displayed a chronic aversion to work. Few things are as lethargic as the Kenyan MP. The deliverables those gentlemen and women have after 5 years of duty are few and far between. How many bills have been passed?

Corruption

I am least impressed with the issue of how the prospective heads of state plan to handle corruption. The incumbent pointedly makes no mention of the same in his manifesto. And the leading rival is talking about amnesty if the money is returned. Well my hearties, that’s just not good enough!

Energy

The renewed bursts of energy from our otherwise lethargic parliament is nothing short of amusing. All over the country reports are trickling on of “Honourable” (I use the word very loosely) members showing up at their constituency five calendar years since they last set foot on those soils, with brimming energy and determination to make a difference next time.

Waistcoats and trousers seats bulging in heroic attempts to hold in their copious contents, these fellows clumsily mount podiums and appeal passionately to be given a chance to serve the people. Questions as to exactly how the people were served in the past 5 years are conveniently overlooked.

AOB

Few and far between are the blogs that make me actually burst into laughter. Blacknutz my son you rule … you owe me a keyboard

 

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